Our computers double in capability on time scales of only a few years. It's hardly outrageous to believe that we will successfully develop thinking machines within a handful of decades, or at most a century or two. If that happens, these artificial sentients will quickly leave us behind.

Seth Shostak’s quote addresses the rapid progression of computing technology and the possibility of creating thinking machines. He highlights the exponential growth in computer capability, where the power of computers doubles every few years. This rapid advancement in technology leads him to believe that the development of artificial intelligence (AI) or artificial sentients—machines capable of thinking independently—is a realistic goal within a few decades or, at most, a century or two. Shostak suggests that once such machines are created, they will evolve at an accelerated pace, eventually surpassing human intelligence.

The origin of Shostak’s perspective comes from his expertise in astronomy and SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence). His work has focused on the development of intelligent systems, and his background in science gives him insight into the possible trajectory of AI. As a researcher, Shostak has followed trends in computing and technological development, leading him to conclude that we are on the cusp of significant breakthroughs in AI.

Shostak’s statement raises a crucial issue about the future relationship between humans and these artificial sentients. He speculates that as AI advances, these machines will not only surpass humans in terms of intelligence but also in their ability to innovate and problem-solve. This shift could potentially lead to a scenario where machines become the dominant form of intelligence, leaving humanity to adapt to a new reality where human capabilities are no longer the highest on Earth.

Ultimately, the quote underscores a warning about the potential consequences of creating highly intelligent, self-aware machines. Shostak emphasizes that the trajectory of AI development suggests a future where humans might struggle to keep up with the capabilities of artificial intelligence, raising ethical and existential questions about the role of humanity in a world where machines could potentially surpass us in every way.