On their own, tariff and trade barriers, if viewed as transitory negotiating tactics, will not significantly change global investment patterns or the structure of global supply chains and employment.

This quote by economist Michael Spence addresses the limited long-term impact of tariff and trade barriers when used merely as temporary negotiating tactics. Spence argues that such measures, while politically or strategically useful in the short term, are unlikely to cause deep, lasting shifts in how countries and companies make decisions about global investment, supply chains, and employment.

By emphasizing the phrase "on their own," Spence makes it clear that isolated or short-lived protectionist actions do not have the structural weight to alter the complex web of global economic relationships. The structure of global supply chains—which involves multinational corporations, cross-border production, and integrated labor markets—is shaped by long-term factors like cost, efficiency, and technological capability, not just temporary political moves.

The origin of this quote stems from Spence’s broader work in global economics and trade, particularly his analysis of how nations respond to globalization. As a Nobel laureate in economic sciences, Spence has extensively studied economic development and global market behavior. This quote reflects his view that real, meaningful shifts in global economic systems require more than reactive trade policies—they demand comprehensive and sustained changes in strategy, innovation, and cooperation.