This is actually a very important principle that science is learning about large systems like evolution and that futurists are learning about anticipating human society: just because a future scenario is plausible doesn't mean we can get there from here.

In this quote, Kevin Kelly reflects on an important principle related to large systems and the complexities of predicting the future. He emphasizes that even though a future scenario may seem plausible, it doesn't necessarily mean that it can be achieved from the current state. This idea is especially relevant when studying evolution or trying to anticipate human society, where the complexity of systems and unforeseen variables can make it difficult to predict exact outcomes or pathways.

Kelly's point highlights the difficulty in forecasting and planning for the future. While it's possible to imagine a scenario that appears realistic, there are often barriers—whether societal, technological, or environmental—that prevent us from realizing that future. The concept of large systems, like evolution, reminds us that small changes over time can lead to unexpected outcomes, and what seems achievable in theory may not be practically attainable in reality due to the unpredictable nature of complex systems.

The origin of this quote can be traced to Kelly's work as a futurist and technology writer, where he has explored how technology and society evolve. As a co-founder of Wired magazine, Kelly has been deeply involved in thinking about how technology and human progress interact. His perspective reflects the broader challenge faced by futurists and scientists who attempt to forecast or plan for future developments in systems that are constantly evolving.

Ultimately, Kelly's quote serves as a reminder that prediction is an inherently uncertain endeavor, especially when dealing with complex systems like society and evolution. Just because a future scenario is conceivable doesn't mean it is directly achievable, and this insight calls for humility in our approach to both science and technology.