History is mostly guessing; the rest is prejudice.

The quote by Will Durant, the American historian and philosopher, captures a profound skepticism about the reliability of history. By saying “history is mostly guessing,” Durant emphasizes that much of what we call recorded history is based on interpretation, inference, and incomplete evidence rather than absolute fact. Human memory is fallible, records are often lost or biased, and the truth of past events is frequently reconstructed from fragments. Thus, historical accounts are shaped as much by what is missing as by what is known.

The second part of the quote—“the rest is prejudice”—points to the influence of bias in historical writing. Historians, like all people, bring their own cultural perspectives, political views, and personal values into their work. This shapes how they select events, whom they portray as heroes or villains, and how they interpret causes and effects. Durant suggests that history is never fully objective; it is a blend of educated guesswork and human subjectivity.

The origin of this quote comes from Durant’s reflections in his multi-volume work, The Story of Civilization, which he co-authored with his wife, Ariel Durant. Written over several decades in the 20th century, the series attempted to synthesize vast amounts of historical material into a cohesive narrative. However, Durant was keenly aware of the limitations of historical study, and this quote reflects his candid acknowledgment of the discipline’s flaws. It highlights his humility in recognizing that history is not an exact science but rather an ongoing dialogue between the past and those who study it.

In a broader sense, Durant’s words remind us to approach historical narratives with critical thinking. They encourage readers to recognize the role of interpretation, to question sources, and to understand that history is as much about the storytelling lens as it is about the events themselves. The quote remains influential because it challenges blind acceptance of historical accounts, urging us instead to see them as constructions shaped by human minds rather than pure, unfiltered truth.

Would you like me to also provide an example of a major historical event where guesswork and prejudice clearly influenced how it was recorded?