There is always some chance of recession in any year. But the evidence suggests that expansions don't die of old age.

The quote "There is always some chance of recession in any year. But the evidence suggests that expansions don't die of old age" by Janet Yellen addresses the nature of economic cycles and the factors that influence them. It acknowledges that a recession—a decline in economic activity—can occur in any given year, but challenges the idea that long periods of economic growth, or expansions, inevitably end simply because they have lasted a long time. The phrase "don't die of old age" emphasizes that recessions are typically triggered by specific events or imbalances, not by the mere passage of time.

Janet Yellen, an American economist and the first woman to serve as both Chair of the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury Secretary, made this remark while discussing economic outlooks and policymaking. This perspective is grounded in economic research showing that expansions can be sustained if underlying conditions remain healthy—such as stable inflation, strong employment, and balanced financial markets—while recessions usually result from shocks, policy mistakes, or other disruptions.

The statement reframes public understanding of economic growth. Many people assume that after a certain period of prosperity, a downturn becomes inevitable, but Yellen’s point is that policy choices and economic fundamentals matter far more than the age of an expansion. This view encourages policymakers to focus on preventing imbalances and managing risks rather than assuming that time alone will end a growth phase.

Ultimately, Yellen’s words combine economic insight with public reassurance. While she admits there is always some chance of recession, she stresses that growth can be prolonged if the right conditions are maintained—underscoring the role of informed decision-making in shaping the economy’s future.