If you have to forecast, forecast often.

Edgar Fiedler, a respected American economist and author, made this statement to highlight the inherent uncertainty of making forecasts. By saying, “If you have to forecast, forecast often,” Fiedler is pointing out that predictions about the economy, business, or the future are rarely perfect. Because conditions can change rapidly, it is essential to revise and update forecasts regularly rather than relying on a single prediction.

The quote underscores the importance of flexibility and adaptability in planning. Frequent forecasting allows organizations and individuals to respond quickly to new data, shifting markets, or unforeseen events. In essence, Fiedler is saying that forecasts should be treated as living documents rather than fixed declarations, enabling decision-makers to stay aligned with reality as it evolves.

The origin of this statement ties back to Fiedler’s extensive experience in government and private-sector economic analysis. He observed firsthand how unexpected changes—such as market fluctuations, policy shifts, or technological advances—can quickly render a single forecast obsolete. His advice is practical: if you must look ahead, be prepared to adjust your view frequently.

Ultimately, Fiedler’s message is about managing uncertainty. Forecasting is necessary in business and economics, but it is never infallible. By forecasting often, leaders can make better-informed decisions, reduce risks, and maintain the agility needed to navigate an unpredictable world.